Just what we need, another stupid unenforcable law

I read in today's papers, and hear on the news, that the Government has decided to reduce the speed limit on country roads to 50mph from 60mph.

Now, as you'll see from the name of this blog, I live in North Norfolk, a place crisscrossed by roads that are not just rural, but in many places only wide enough for a single car with passing places, so fools doing 60mph along these roads would be considered not just fool, but a maniac who could easily cause a fatal crash.

Alongside these B and C class roads, we have the local A roads, these are exclusively single carriageway, In my area, I have the A140 and the A149, in the last 5 to 8 years many sections of these roads have had their speed limit cut as they go through villages, in some places to 50mph, in others to 40mph and in a couple of places, all the way down to 20mph,

What effect does this have on the drivers traversing these areas? They get utterly frustrated. Not so much by the changes in the limit itself, but by the behavior of some of the drivers. The first result of a drop in the speed limit as you are travelling along is the "Bunching up" of traffic. generally, at 60mph almost all drivers keep to a sensible distance from the vehicle in front, go down to 50 and that gap between cars decreases dramatically, 40mph is even worse, at this point, the gap is generally too small to avoid accidents, once you pass through these areas, people speed up to 60 and the traffic spreads out to safe distances.

So, we have the comparison between single track roads and single carriageway roads, in the time I've lived in North Norfolk, over 30 years, how many accidents have I seen on the single track roads? Two, both of which I was involved in, both caused by someone underestimating the width of their car (not me I hasten to add). On the single carriageway roads, I have seen many more accidents on the A roads, most of which seem to have been caused by cars joining the main road, obviously not doing 60, but pulling out in front of traffic that may be. That isn't a misjudgement on part of the driver on the main road, but of the driver joining it.

So now we'll have all drivers bunching up and getting frustrated as this pathetic government tries to make every one of us a criminal. What will that lead to? More accidents, more Road Rage, more frustration.

This government does not understand the country, does not understand anyone who would live outside their cities, and, if you are potentially a voter for any party other than Nu Labour (and EVERYONE who lives in the country is likely to vote against them) then you will suffer. You will suffer if only by the passing of laws that cannot be enforced, even if they tried to enforce a 50mph limit, on the country roads, you'ld get cars being chased by Police cars that are incapable of goes at any sort of speed. Crackers, absolutely crackers

Snow and the UK

So, that was it, the worse weather "event" since 1991. Not only are we
the laughing stock of Europe, we are the laughing stock of everywhere
North of Derby. Snow happens at least a couple of times a year in these
areas, how often does it make national news? As with the 1987
"Hurricane" it affected the south, especially London and, as a result
was splashed everywhere.

Now I will admit that I expect some bias towards the south east of the
country and Londn in particular, as, if you look at Greater London, it
almost certainly contains between 10 and 12% of the entire population of
the country, but I suspect that as much of the Media output derives from
London, this bias is much greater than it would be otherwise. Note to
all media outlets, keep it balanced and PLEASE stop over hyping events.
It SNOWED, admittedly hasn't done that too often recently, but it is
just snow, it will be gone in a few days, or at worse a couple of
weeks. Some of us are just happy to see some of the white stuff, I
would however like to see less of the "Snow event proves Global warming"
as that can be described in just one word, -- Bullshit.

Bad News Days

So what is is about newspapers, rolling TV news and other media that
make them want to outdo each other in the bad news stakes? We get
erroneous headlines "80,000 jobs lost in one day". Where has this
disaster happened?

Worldwide!!

Now, please correct me if I'm wrong, but the comments I hear coming out
of China seem to be telling me that they may be losing 80,000 jobs a day
in China alone, without any help from our crippled companies. Besides I
would assume that the 80,000 are the publicly announced job cuts from
large corporations, ignoring the little guys who may be laying off 1 or
2 people.

But the thing that really annoys me is that the 80,000 is presented as a
hard fact, if you are person 80,001, you will be safe, but God help you
if you are number 79,999.

Note to all media outlets, Present "facts" not hearsay presented as
facts. If a figure is approximate, say it's approximate, you can even
say a figure is expected to be higher or, heaven forbid if it's good
news, lower. People are not stupid, they can see when a "fact" is is
not a fact. All it does is encourage a counter culture where people do
not believe the Main Stream Media, because all they peddle are lies

The year the Glaciers Grew??

So here we are at the start of 2009, OK already almost 12% through the year, but, Temperatures are down, worldwide. Forget the idea that ice is melting, this year, look at facts, not hearsay. So why do I think the "Global Warmers" have got it wrong?

Some facts

1) we are at the end of a solar cycle, the "Little Ice Age" happened at the Maunder Minimum where there were very few sunspots for a period of over 60 years.
2) The other known time of temperature decreases was the Dalton Minimum, which although nowhere near as long or as strong as the Maunder minimum did produce an overall decrease in world temperature.
3) The sun appears too have "switched off", see this graph from the excellent wattsupwiththat notice the drop in activity in 2005, given it seems that a 3 year gap translates to a cooling, we are well on our way.
4) An unprecedented, at least in the last 35 years, Stratospheric warming is indicative of further cooling to come for the Northern hemisphere during this winter
5) The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) looks as though it will be negative for 2009, again leading to an overall decrease in temperature.
6) El Nino is the past, La Nina seems to be the dominant process for 2009 as it was for 2008.
7) Despite all the Global Warmers comments, the Antarctic, as a continent is gettingt colder, NOT warmer and ice is accumulating in greater quantities rather than not forming during the Antarctic winter

Add these facts together and what do you have? Global cooling to a point that will arrest, overall, the retreat of glaciers worldwide. Ther may still be some areas on the planet that get warmer, but overall, cooler is the trend and a miniscule change in global temepreature will be enough to stop the retreat

Norfolk County Council Cuts

I hear that again the County Council is cutting jobs. I also hear that they are re-organising Social services, arranging for the Social Workers to be able to link into the County IT system and update records remotely. I have no idea how they will do this, but I hear that the cost of it will be "up to" 60 jobs. These are Front line Jobs, people that actually go out and help the needy of ths County, whether they are young or old, infant or elderly. Do we hear of any job cuts at County Hall?

The beaurocrats get more numerous and better paid, many in "Cover your arse" jobs rather than the people who actually have to go out and do the work to look after us when we are needy, are the beaurocrats at risk? Probably not.

With all the figures that NCC put out each year, I would like to add one more. Can the council provide us with a % of Frontline staff costs compared to administatration costs for each department the Council controls?

Bank bailout Mark 2

So here we are again, another bank bailout, RBS failing, the new "super sized" Lloyds banking Group falling, RBS Share price at a miserly 10.3 PENCE, down 11% on the day (i.e. down Just over a penny) while Lloyds is now down to just under 45p having lost 20 pence today or one third of it's value.

What are we doing allowing this to happen? What is the true VALUE of Lloyds? Lloyds, before taking on the toxic HBOS was always seen as being rock solid and BORING. Well, it isn't boring any more, however if this carries on much longer it will be another government bank to add to Northern Rock and RBS (RBS will be in governemnt hands within 4 weeks IMHO)

In the meantime, the country goes down the pan and all our debt increases.

Try reading all of this,

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2004/0902.html

but the important part is this

There are also important parallels regarding currency and export policy. During the 1920s, the British Pound was overvalued and was used by smaller countries as a reserve currency. While Britain ran its inflationary policies during the 1920’s, it was losing gold to other countries, mainly the United States. Therefore, “if the United States government were to inflate American money, Great Britain would no longer lose gold to the United States” (p. 143). Exacerbating the problem further, the Americans artificially stimulated foreign lending, which further strengthened American farm exports, aggravated the net-export problem, and accelerated the gold flow imbalances. “It [foreign lending] also established American trade, not on a solid foundation of reciprocal and productive exchange, but on a feverish promotion of loans later revealed to be unsound” (p. 139). “[President] Hoover was so enthusiastic about subsidizing foreign loans that he commented later that even bad loans helped American exports and thus provided a cheap form of relief and employment—a cheap form that later brought expensive defaults and financial distress” (p.141) Thus, the preceding discussion makes it clear, that the fundamental reasons behind the American inflationary policy were (1) to check Great Britain’s drains of gold to the United States, (2) to stimulate foreign lending, and (3) to stimulate agricultural exports.

Similarly, today the dollar is overvalued and used as the reserve currency of the world. The U.S. runs its inflationary policy and is losing dollars to the rest of the world, mainly China (and Japan). Today, the currency and export policy of China is anchored around its peg to the dollar. The main reason for this is that by artificially undervaluing its own currency, and therefore overvaluing the dollar, China artificially stimulates its manufacturing exports. The second reason is that by buying the excess U.S. dollars and reinvesting them in U.S. government bonds, it acts as a foreign lender to the United States. The third reason is that this foreign lending stimulates American demand for Chinese manufacturing exports and allows the Chinese government to relieve its current unemployment problems. In other words, the motives behind the Chinese currency and export policy today are identical to the American ones during the 1920s: (1) to support the overvalued U.S. dollar, (2) to stimulate foreign lending, and (3) to stimulate its manufacturing exports. Just like America in the 1920s, China establishes its trade today not on the solid foundation of reciprocal and productive exchange, but on the basis of foreign loans. No doubt, most of these loans will turn out to be very expensive because they will be repaid with greatly depreciated dollars, which in turn will exacerbate down the road the growing financial distress of the banking sector in China.

Therefore, it is clear that China travels today the road to Depression. How severe this depression will be, will critically depend on two developments. First, how much longer the Chinese government will pursue the inflationary policy, and second how doggedly it will fight the bust. The longer it expands and the more its fights the bust, the more likely it is that the Chinese Depression will turn into a Great Depression. Also, it is important to realize that just like America’s Great Depression in the 1930s triggered a worldwide Depression, similarly a Chinese Depression will trigger a bust in the U.S., and therefore a recession in the rest of the world.

Unless there is an unforeseen banking, currency, or a derivative crisis spreading throughout the world, it is my belief that the Chinese bust will occur sometime in 2008-2009, since the Chinese government will surely pursue expansionary policies until the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in China. By then, inflation will be most likely out of control, probably already in runaway mode, and the government will have no choice but to slam the brakes and induce contraction. In 1929 the expansion stopped in July, the stock market broke in October, and the economy collapsed in early 1930. Thus, providing for a latency period of approximately half a year between credit contraction and economic collapse, based on my Olympic Games timing, I would pinpoint the bust for 2009. Admittedly, this is a pure speculation on my part; naturally, the bust could occur sooner or later.

While I base my timing of bust on the 2008 Olympic Games, Marc Faber, the foremost Austrian authority in the world on Chinese economic development, believes that the bust will occur sooner. According to him, the U.S. is due for a meaningful recession relatively soon, which in turn will exacerbate already existing manufacturing overcapacities in China. This, coupled with growing credit problems, makes him believe that China will tip into recession sooner than the Olympic Games. In other words, Dr. Faber believes that a U.S. recession will trigger the Depression in China. Indeed, that very well may be the trigger, but if so, it still remains to be seen whether the Chinese government will let the bust run its course or choose the route of a “crack-up” boom, come hell or high water.

We should also consider another possible trigger for a bust, namely trade surpluses turning into trade deficits due to the accelerated rise of prices for resources, such as commodities, which China must import. Faced with trade deficits, China may decide to dishoard surpluses by selling U.S. government bonds, or it may decide to abandon its peg to the dollar. In either case, this will exacerbate the problems of the ailing U.S. economy, which in turn will boomerang back to China.

Finally, the bust may be triggered by a worldwide crisis in crude oil supplies. Peak oil supply is around the corner, if not already behind us, and Middle East or Caspian instability could sharply cut oil supplies. Historically, oil shortages and their concomitant rise of oil prices have always induced a recession. China’s growing dependence on oil ensures that should an oil crisis occur, it will slip into recession.

To summarize, the likely candidates for a trigger to the Chinese depression are (1) a worldwide currency, banking, or derivatives crisis, (2) a U.S. recession, (3) the containment of runaway inflation, (4) the disappearance of Chinese trade surpluses, and (5) an oil supply crisis.

Whatever the trigger of the bust in China, there is little doubt that this will provide the onset of a worldwide depression. Just like the U.S. emerged from the Great Depression as the unrivalled superpower of the world, so it is likely that China will emerge as the next.

written in 2004, eerily accurate

Thursford Christmas Spectacular

Bit of a strange thing to write about, as, if you don't have a ticket, you will not see it this year. Last Thursday evening went to this years Chris mas spectacular at the Thursford Steam museum. A Variety show in the true sense, lots of singing, a foundation of Religion with the Christmas Story, and a really good night.

The Thursford Steam Museum started life a place where old steam engines, mainly traction engines made in Norfolk, were restored and displayed. From it's start in 1977, the Christmas Show has grown to deserve the term Spectacular. Over 100 performers on the (huge ) stage, singing of the highest quality, dancing that is incredibly precise, a wonderfully happy atmosphere, all combine to create a superb nights entertainment.

Norfolk seems to be one of the last places in the UK where "Old Fashioned" Variety shows still has enough of a draw to pull people out of their homes. The "Seaside Special" and the "Christmas Special" in Cromer Pier Theatre along with the Thursford Show really do make Norfolk, and North Norfolk particularly is now the only part of the country if you are looking for good old fashioned Variety Shows.

So, what was the Thursford Show like? It's termed a "Spectacular" and that is almost an understatement, from the very start the pace of the show is managed with huge skill, some dance routines are close to frenetic, while the quality of the singing is of the highest order. An undercurrent of the Christmas story helps to hold the show together, without becoming overly pious and still allowing some wonderfully choreographed dance routines, especially one in the second half where the speed of movement was so quick as to almost be impossible to follow but no one made a mistake, I dread to think how long the rehearsals take. The other highlight is the music, not just an orchestra of the highest calibre, but an organ player who plays the Wurlitzer Organ with such Panache that he leaves you breathless. To have so much control over your body that each of your four limbs are acting in a co-ordinated but seperate way to produce a beautiful cacophony that can be viewed on big screens that are scrolled down so cameras can pick up what the maesto is doing. At one point he even shows the time on his watch so you can see that the projection is not a recording.

The final point is that the comedy that takes place is funny, but not offensive. So this is a real night for those from nine to ninety


Wonderful night, now I must book next years tickets

Inflation, Deflation and where we go from here

So, as of now we have the USA Federal reserve having setting Interest Rates at 0.25%. Lower than they have ever been before. We have Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England saying that next year inflation may undershoot the 2% target by more than 1%, prompting another letter of apology to Politicians who profess to know where the economy is headed.

So, since July 2007, the patient's, the world economy, prognosis has become increasingly bad.

First we had the Credit Crunch, supposedly a "local problem", confined to the USA, caused by lending of money by banks in an irresponsible manner. That is, they loaned money to people who could not afford to pay, we called it "Sub-Prime". In the UK we smiled and said "Only in America"

Until

We got hit by two words "Northern Rock". Here was the UK's answer to Sub Prime, a Bank giving mortgage loans of upto 125% of the value of the property that people were buying. Buying with a loan of that size has a single assumption -- that the value of property will continue to increase until the value is at least 125% of the purchase price. Looking at property values in the last 12 years you see a rising trend, with prices increasing year by year, until quarter 3 of 2007. What happened in Quarter 3? Northern Rock -- and a loss of confidence.

Since then, house prices have headed only one way -- down. Currently we are about 15% down from where we were, yeaterday the Barclays Bank boss said that he expects that to double to a decline of 30% from the peak, so if your house was worth £200,000 in July 2007, by the time we reach the bottom of this that business leader expects it to be worth just £140,000 and if you bought that house in 2006 or 2007, you'll be in negative equity for several years to come.

Then

It got worse. Banks, those bastions of a Capitalist Society started losing their market value, sometimes in dramatic fashion. Lehman was the second big bank to go, the first was Bear Stearns, and suddenly Investment Banks are rare beasts, driven out of business by exposure to CDO's, SIV's and other ways of taking debt off their Balance Sheets