Global Warming, Fact? Fiction?

I think there is a great deal of confusion about what is "Global Warming" and what is "Climate Change". There is no doubt that we, the human race, are responsible for a portion of the warming that is happening to the planet today, but what percentage?

The honest answer, despite all the hype is that no one knows, and all the models used by scientists are too simplistic to model out into the future. I understand the way that they start their models 50 years in the past and watch for correlation to the present, those that have a high correlation up to the present are then extrapolated into the future, sometimes as far as 100 years into the future. The output, even 20 years into the future is highly suspect. In Reality, we cannot predict the weather one month away, let alone 20 years or 100 years into the future.

Climate Change, as opposed to Global warming has, on the other hand, has always happened. 7,000 years ago, North Africa was so green and wet, that there were crocodiles all across North Africa, now there are still a few relic populations in the Sahara. Are we trying to say that the failure of the North African Monsoon and the effect that it had on the entire North African area was a freak event? Further work has shown that the North African Continent has had multiple periods of wet, warm and arid, hot periods. These have occurred before and during the time that humankind were first colonising the planet therefore we could not have affected things if we were not there.

So, are we having an effect? Almost certainly. Do we know how much of an effect? Even with all the modeling done to date -- somewhere between nothing and not a lot.

If you disagree, feel free to comment