Bit of a strange thing to write about, as, if you don't have a ticket, you will not see it this year. Last Thursday evening went to this years Chris mas spectacular at the Thursford Steam museum. A Variety show in the true sense, lots of singing, a foundation of Religion with the Christmas Story, and a really good night.
The Thursford Steam Museum started life a place where old steam engines, mainly traction engines made in Norfolk, were restored and displayed. From it's start in 1977, the Christmas Show has grown to deserve the term Spectacular. Over 100 performers on the (huge ) stage, singing of the highest quality, dancing that is incredibly precise, a wonderfully happy atmosphere, all combine to create a superb nights entertainment.
Norfolk seems to be one of the last places in the UK where "Old Fashioned" Variety shows still has enough of a draw to pull people out of their homes. The "Seaside Special" and the "Christmas Special" in Cromer Pier Theatre along with the Thursford Show really do make Norfolk, and North Norfolk particularly is now the only part of the country if you are looking for good old fashioned Variety Shows.
So, what was the Thursford Show like? It's termed a "Spectacular" and that is almost an understatement, from the very start the pace of the show is managed with huge skill, some dance routines are close to frenetic, while the quality of the singing is of the highest order. An undercurrent of the Christmas story helps to hold the show together, without becoming overly pious and still allowing some wonderfully choreographed dance routines, especially one in the second half where the speed of movement was so quick as to almost be impossible to follow but no one made a mistake, I dread to think how long the rehearsals take. The other highlight is the music, not just an orchestra of the highest calibre, but an organ player who plays the Wurlitzer Organ with such Panache that he leaves you breathless. To have so much control over your body that each of your four limbs are acting in a co-ordinated but seperate way to produce a beautiful cacophony that can be viewed on big screens that are scrolled down so cameras can pick up what the maesto is doing. At one point he even shows the time on his watch so you can see that the projection is not a recording.
The final point is that the comedy that takes place is funny, but not offensive. So this is a real night for those from nine to ninety
Wonderful night, now I must book next years tickets
Monday, December 22
Tuesday, December 16
Inflation, Deflation and where we go from here
So, as of now we have the USA Federal reserve having setting Interest Rates at 0.25%. Lower than they have ever been before. We have Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England saying that next year inflation may undershoot the 2% target by more than 1%, prompting another letter of apology to Politicians who profess to know where the economy is headed.
So, since July 2007, the patient's, the world economy, prognosis has become increasingly bad.
First we had the Credit Crunch, supposedly a "local problem", confined to the USA, caused by lending of money by banks in an irresponsible manner. That is, they loaned money to people who could not afford to pay, we called it "Sub-Prime". In the UK we smiled and said "Only in America"
Until
We got hit by two words "Northern Rock". Here was the UK's answer to Sub Prime, a Bank giving mortgage loans of upto 125% of the value of the property that people were buying. Buying with a loan of that size has a single assumption -- that the value of property will continue to increase until the value is at least 125% of the purchase price. Looking at property values in the last 12 years you see a rising trend, with prices increasing year by year, until quarter 3 of 2007. What happened in Quarter 3? Northern Rock -- and a loss of confidence.
Since then, house prices have headed only one way -- down. Currently we are about 15% down from where we were, yeaterday the Barclays Bank boss said that he expects that to double to a decline of 30% from the peak, so if your house was worth £200,000 in July 2007, by the time we reach the bottom of this that business leader expects it to be worth just £140,000 and if you bought that house in 2006 or 2007, you'll be in negative equity for several years to come.
Then
It got worse. Banks, those bastions of a Capitalist Society started losing their market value, sometimes in dramatic fashion. Lehman was the second big bank to go, the first was Bear Stearns, and suddenly Investment Banks are rare beasts, driven out of business by exposure to CDO's, SIV's and other ways of taking debt off their Balance Sheets
So, since July 2007, the patient's, the world economy, prognosis has become increasingly bad.
First we had the Credit Crunch, supposedly a "local problem", confined to the USA, caused by lending of money by banks in an irresponsible manner. That is, they loaned money to people who could not afford to pay, we called it "Sub-Prime". In the UK we smiled and said "Only in America"
Until
We got hit by two words "Northern Rock". Here was the UK's answer to Sub Prime, a Bank giving mortgage loans of upto 125% of the value of the property that people were buying. Buying with a loan of that size has a single assumption -- that the value of property will continue to increase until the value is at least 125% of the purchase price. Looking at property values in the last 12 years you see a rising trend, with prices increasing year by year, until quarter 3 of 2007. What happened in Quarter 3? Northern Rock -- and a loss of confidence.
Since then, house prices have headed only one way -- down. Currently we are about 15% down from where we were, yeaterday the Barclays Bank boss said that he expects that to double to a decline of 30% from the peak, so if your house was worth £200,000 in July 2007, by the time we reach the bottom of this that business leader expects it to be worth just £140,000 and if you bought that house in 2006 or 2007, you'll be in negative equity for several years to come.
Then
It got worse. Banks, those bastions of a Capitalist Society started losing their market value, sometimes in dramatic fashion. Lehman was the second big bank to go, the first was Bear Stearns, and suddenly Investment Banks are rare beasts, driven out of business by exposure to CDO's, SIV's and other ways of taking debt off their Balance Sheets
Tuesday, December 9
(Un) Employment Numbers
I'm spending my working time in London, in a building just off Baker
Street. Everyday I walk from my hotel to work, as part of that work I
walk past a "Reed Recruitment" office, during the time I have been
taking this small amount of exercise the numbers displayed in a rolling
neon display make for sobering reading.
Street. Everyday I walk from my hotel to work, as part of that work I
walk past a "Reed Recruitment" office, during the time I have been
taking this small amount of exercise the numbers displayed in a rolling
neon display make for sobering reading.
The numbers in question are the number of Jobs available online at
Reed.co.uk, the number appears to change every four weeks, so cannot at
any time be deemed as being up to date, but they are interesting for the
decline in numbers seen since late September. I cannot remember the
number to the nearest digit, but for each month I can remember the
number of thousands displayed and they break down as this
Sept 08 -- 168,000
Oct 08 --159,000
Nov 08 -- 139,000
Dec 08 -- 131,000
From that we see that the number of vacancies has dropped by over 25%
in just 4 months, and remember these are jobs that are online, so this
is s nationwide snapshot, and Reeds cover a large portfolio of job
types. If that is repeated over all the agencies out there, it
represents a huge reduction in available jobs and a worrying trend for
the future.
One point that I cannot compare against is any seasonality in the
figures, i.e. would they be expected to drop anyway? I suspect that for
October and November things would not normally be anywhere near as bad
as these figures suggest.
Add to any picture the numbers concealed by use of "Incapacity Benefit"
and other tricks to reduce the size of the Dole queue and I would think
that the number of people chasing jobs, or at least not in a job is
probably already higher than the number of jobs available.
UPDATE: 16th December 2008
This week, they have updated the numbers again, and it's not good, jobs available online now down to just over 127,539, that's 4,000 jobs in a week, or about 3.5% reduction, not good at all
Monday, December 8
Clarkson and the "End of Days"
Interesting comments from a very ill Jeremy Clarkson on the Mayo show on Radio 5 last week. Jeremy Clarkson has been desribed as a contraversialist (if there is such a word). Here you'll find Jeremy's personal opinion, and he stresses it's a personal opinion that we're about to hit a massive financial meltdown.
Laptops vs Desktops
Why would anyone buy a desktop PC? Laptops today, even the smaller ones
have high resolution screens, usually 1280*800 have built in DVD writers
and can do anything that a desktop machine can do. Add to that the lack
of wired clutter between keyboard, mouse, monitor, network etc. Almost
all laptops can connect via a wireless network and, finally the power
consumption of a laptop is typically between 10 and 20 watts whereas a
performance desktop needs a power supply that can cope with 500 watts
and will generally draw between 75 and 125 watts, even without the
screen which itself will draw another 15-25 watts.
have high resolution screens, usually 1280*800 have built in DVD writers
and can do anything that a desktop machine can do. Add to that the lack
of wired clutter between keyboard, mouse, monitor, network etc. Almost
all laptops can connect via a wireless network and, finally the power
consumption of a laptop is typically between 10 and 20 watts whereas a
performance desktop needs a power supply that can cope with 500 watts
and will generally draw between 75 and 125 watts, even without the
screen which itself will draw another 15-25 watts.
Price also comes into it
5 years ago the differential between laptops and desktops was pretty big
with the laptops having a premium of over 100%. This no longer applies,
laptops are as cheap, if not cheaper than desktops, which then begs the
question.
Why buy a desktop??
Tuesday, December 2
Abuse of Power
There is something about the Damien Green affair that worries the hell out of me. Now my understanding is that if the Police want to search your property or possibly confiscate your belongings BUT they do not have evidence of an illegal act, they can get a "Search Warrant" which will allow them to search and confiscate items that may have been used in an illegal act. To get the warrant, they have to convince a Judge that it will help them substantively in their investigations.
However, if they arrest you, things are different, the section below is taken, verbatim, from http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/index/your_rights/legal_system/police_powers.htm#Powersofentry. All bold sections are my emphasis
Police ALWAYS want more powers, sometimes it is understandable, sometimes not, but when we end up with the situation we've had over the last few days I think there should be much greater, transparent oversight
However, if they arrest you, things are different, the section below is taken, verbatim, from http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/index/your_rights/legal_system/police_powers.htm#Powersofentry. All bold sections are my emphasis
Now Damien Green was arrested at his home, yet his offices in Parliament were also searched. So according to the text above, this immediately gives the Police the authority to search his home, but what about:If the police do arrest you, they can also enter and search any premises where you were during or immediately before the arrest. They can search only for evidence relating to the offence for which you have been arrested, and they must have reasonable grounds for believing there is evidence there. They can also search any premises occupied by someone who is under arrest for certain serious offences. Again, the police officer who carries out the search must have reasonable grounds for suspecting that there is evidence on the premises relating to the offence or a similar offence.
In other circumstances, the police must have a search warrant before they can enter the premises. They should enter property at a reasonable hour unless this would frustrate their search. When the occupier is present, the police must ask for permission to search the property – again, unless it would frustrate the search to do this.
When they are carrying out a search police officers must:
- identify themselves and - if they are not in uniform - show their warrant card, and
- explain why they want to search, the rights of the occupier and whether the search is made with a search warrant or not.
- They can also search any premises occupied by someone who is under arrest for certain serious offences.
Police ALWAYS want more powers, sometimes it is understandable, sometimes not, but when we end up with the situation we've had over the last few days I think there should be much greater, transparent oversight
Thursday, November 27
Politics going bad?
Damian Green, the Conservative immigration spokesman was arrested earlier today.
I find it very worrying that the reason for the arrest was given by Sky as "conspiracy to cause misconduct in public office". Have we come, in just 11 years to a situation where, if you are passed information from inside a Government Department, you are arrested and your house searched?
The word that concerns me most is "Conspiracy", it always implys more than one person, is this how Gordon Brown aims to stay in power? Arrest the opposition? I know, we'll set prison camps up in remote areas of the country. No that's been done before -- by Stalin!!
I find it very worrying that the reason for the arrest was given by Sky as "conspiracy to cause misconduct in public office". Have we come, in just 11 years to a situation where, if you are passed information from inside a Government Department, you are arrested and your house searched?
The word that concerns me most is "Conspiracy", it always implys more than one person, is this how Gordon Brown aims to stay in power? Arrest the opposition? I know, we'll set prison camps up in remote areas of the country. No that's been done before -- by Stalin!!
Saturday, November 22
Wonderful Winter Weather
Snow and hail showers today, with a cutting wind. Took the car to the garage and had to walk home in one of those showers. The snow and hail, no problem, the wind, lethal. Absolutely frozen by the time I got home, but what a joy to see winter come when winter should. Not even out of November and we have some snow. What I want to know now is where else on the planet is it colder than normal?
Friday, November 21
Peverse??
These are strange times. In fifteen months we have gone from a world where we were "living in a new paradigm" where "Boom and Bust have been abolished" to a world where the wheels are falling off.
This, supposedly, is all down to confidence. Commentators who warned that there would be a price to pay when people realised what was happening were called "naysayers" and derided as being old fashioned and out of touch. All of these people, especially Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph and Jeff Randall, also of the Telegraph.
I don't think these commentators are laughing, they realise that times are much too serious for that, but they would be right to say "I told you so".
From my perspective, we live in an age where the amount of information and the amount of knowledge available to the average person is huge compared with previous generations. How many of the people that became so poor that they ended up in Hooverville knew of what was happening around the world. There was radio, television is was in it's infancy, and many were too poor to even own a radio.
That Depression was, perhaps, the first indication that there were too many people to easily support on the planet. However, since that we have increased the global population from just over two billion to over six billion, with the forecasters taking the population over nine billion by 2050. IF the population gets that high, we will either have to live life in a totally different way, as if we don't, we will end up living in a world where all the natural resources will either have been used or are difficult to obtain.
In the meantime we have scientists telling us a pandemic of influenza or some other disease is about 20 years overdue, a pandemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu would kill, if the spread and lethality was similar, in excess of ninety million. Of course, if H5N1 mutated, at current lethality rates, that would be more like one to two billion and finally, if the rumoured smallpox samples escaped, then with the lack of immunity now, it could hit fify percent of the worlds population, so a round three billion.
That would wreck the capitalist paradigm that the world currently operates on. Growth would be unheard of for decades, if not centuries. But perhaps it would move us back to being more responsible with our environment.
So here I am, sitting in my centrally heated house, typing on a computer, connected by ADSL broadband to the wonderful invention the "Web", where I can read information on UK Politics from Guido or Ian Dale, get alternative views on the news from Drudge or Al-Jeezera, or look at what Kondretieff waves are in economics and their consequences
Enjoy it while you can afford it, it may get much more expensive as we move forward
This, supposedly, is all down to confidence. Commentators who warned that there would be a price to pay when people realised what was happening were called "naysayers" and derided as being old fashioned and out of touch. All of these people, especially Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph and Jeff Randall, also of the Telegraph.
I don't think these commentators are laughing, they realise that times are much too serious for that, but they would be right to say "I told you so".
From my perspective, we live in an age where the amount of information and the amount of knowledge available to the average person is huge compared with previous generations. How many of the people that became so poor that they ended up in Hooverville knew of what was happening around the world. There was radio, television is was in it's infancy, and many were too poor to even own a radio.
That Depression was, perhaps, the first indication that there were too many people to easily support on the planet. However, since that we have increased the global population from just over two billion to over six billion, with the forecasters taking the population over nine billion by 2050. IF the population gets that high, we will either have to live life in a totally different way, as if we don't, we will end up living in a world where all the natural resources will either have been used or are difficult to obtain.
In the meantime we have scientists telling us a pandemic of influenza or some other disease is about 20 years overdue, a pandemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu would kill, if the spread and lethality was similar, in excess of ninety million. Of course, if H5N1 mutated, at current lethality rates, that would be more like one to two billion and finally, if the rumoured smallpox samples escaped, then with the lack of immunity now, it could hit fify percent of the worlds population, so a round three billion.
That would wreck the capitalist paradigm that the world currently operates on. Growth would be unheard of for decades, if not centuries. But perhaps it would move us back to being more responsible with our environment.
So here I am, sitting in my centrally heated house, typing on a computer, connected by ADSL broadband to the wonderful invention the "Web", where I can read information on UK Politics from Guido or Ian Dale, get alternative views on the news from Drudge or Al-Jeezera, or look at what Kondretieff waves are in economics and their consequences
Enjoy it while you can afford it, it may get much more expensive as we move forward
Winter Arrives
British weather, it's just magic. Today the weather can best be
described as awful, switching within minutes between sunshine and heavy
showers, predicted to turn wintry as the day goes on. Add to this the
wind, a cold northerly that gusts hugely during these showers, and you
have a day where it is best to stay indoors and watch.
Update: It's cold and blowing a hooley, but so far at least no snow. Currently have some blue sky, but the excellent Netweather suggests on it's radar that we may get something later.
described as awful, switching within minutes between sunshine and heavy
showers, predicted to turn wintry as the day goes on. Add to this the
wind, a cold northerly that gusts hugely during these showers, and you
have a day where it is best to stay indoors and watch.
Update: It's cold and blowing a hooley, but so far at least no snow. Currently have some blue sky, but the excellent Netweather suggests on it's radar that we may get something later.
Wednesday, November 19
Cars, Gas Guzzlers and Eco Warriors
So General Motors, Ford and Chrysler want to follow the banks lead and beg for money from the American Government.
First they were sent packing, now they come back needing smaller sums of money, but I have a feeling that the real reason is that they will wait until the new President is installed and then say they need more.
Meanwhile here in the UK we have people camping near the runway at Stansted because we must all stop flying. Hmmm maybe, maybe not
First they were sent packing, now they come back needing smaller sums of money, but I have a feeling that the real reason is that they will wait until the new President is installed and then say they need more.
Meanwhile here in the UK we have people camping near the runway at Stansted because we must all stop flying. Hmmm maybe, maybe not
Tuesday, November 18
Travelling
I travelled today from Stansted to Hannover and have something to say of the Airport, the journey and the Dutch.
Travelling at 20:40 means that Stansted is usually quite quiet, tonight it was very quiet, reminded me of what it was like 10 years ago. A joy to travel through, no real delays, the staff themselves under less pressure were polite and helpful. But, why, when I was quizzed by a policeman as to where I was going did I feel slightly disconcerted when, on being asked what the reason for my travel was, my reply of “Business” was not enough. The next question was “What’s the nature of your business?” I felt like saying “None of your business”, but instead told the truth “Helping to implement a computer system”. Why do they need to know? Makes no difference to them at all, and I have never been asked, when in any country in Europe, “Why are you here?”
I, and my co worker, needed a bite to eat, and it was during that time that the comment on the Dutch came up. Sitting on a table next to us was a Dutch guy who, having eaten, asked for his bill, so far so good. He decided to pay for it by card, again, normally not a problem. He put the card in, the waitress started to ask him to put in his PIN when his mobile rang. He then kept the waitress waiting while he dealt with the phone call, by the time he’d finished the machine had timed out and the whole transaction had to be repeated. Why couldn’t he just have asked the person on the phone to wait 10 seconds instead on making the waitress wait for minutes? The Dutch are some of the most rude people I have met. The Germans, on the other hand are some of the most gracious, they can be full of righteous wrath if you cross them, but if you behave in a normal fashion, the Germans put us Brits to shame for courteousness.
Finally the journey with the ever reliable Air Berlin. Ryanair could learn lessons in how to run an airline from this lot. The plane was on time, the cabin staff were very good, we arrived slightly early and the baggage appeared within 10 minutes. Totally brilliant.
Travelling at 20:40 means that Stansted is usually quite quiet, tonight it was very quiet, reminded me of what it was like 10 years ago. A joy to travel through, no real delays, the staff themselves under less pressure were polite and helpful. But, why, when I was quizzed by a policeman as to where I was going did I feel slightly disconcerted when, on being asked what the reason for my travel was, my reply of “Business” was not enough. The next question was “What’s the nature of your business?” I felt like saying “None of your business”, but instead told the truth “Helping to implement a computer system”. Why do they need to know? Makes no difference to them at all, and I have never been asked, when in any country in Europe, “Why are you here?”
I, and my co worker, needed a bite to eat, and it was during that time that the comment on the Dutch came up. Sitting on a table next to us was a Dutch guy who, having eaten, asked for his bill, so far so good. He decided to pay for it by card, again, normally not a problem. He put the card in, the waitress started to ask him to put in his PIN when his mobile rang. He then kept the waitress waiting while he dealt with the phone call, by the time he’d finished the machine had timed out and the whole transaction had to be repeated. Why couldn’t he just have asked the person on the phone to wait 10 seconds instead on making the waitress wait for minutes? The Dutch are some of the most rude people I have met. The Germans, on the other hand are some of the most gracious, they can be full of righteous wrath if you cross them, but if you behave in a normal fashion, the Germans put us Brits to shame for courteousness.
Finally the journey with the ever reliable Air Berlin. Ryanair could learn lessons in how to run an airline from this lot. The plane was on time, the cabin staff were very good, we arrived slightly early and the baggage appeared within 10 minutes. Totally brilliant.
Money Money Money
Niall Ferguson's series, "The Ascent of Money" looks like it could be good. Did you know that the root of credit is "Credo" Latin for I believe? What do you believe to loan money? That someone will repay the money that they have borrowed.
Why has it all gone wrong now? Because the heirs of the Moneylenders mantle became too greedy, not content with being able to make money by making the borrower pay back what was borrowed plus a bit more. The "bit more" is the important bit, how much that bit is, depends on many things, how long it's to be borrowed for, how "Credit Worthy" the person is and whether the money is "underwritten" or guaranteed. Credit worthy? Then you will be offered a low interest rate. Questionable Credit Rating? You pay more!!
Loan sharks are the direct decendents of Shylock from The Merchant of Venice. In fact, there may be many of our bankers that will, if Dante is correct, end up in their own circle of hell.where usurers are interned to suffer eternal damnation, so there may be some justice after all.
Why has it all gone wrong now? Because the heirs of the Moneylenders mantle became too greedy, not content with being able to make money by making the borrower pay back what was borrowed plus a bit more. The "bit more" is the important bit, how much that bit is, depends on many things, how long it's to be borrowed for, how "Credit Worthy" the person is and whether the money is "underwritten" or guaranteed. Credit worthy? Then you will be offered a low interest rate. Questionable Credit Rating? You pay more!!
Loan sharks are the direct decendents of Shylock from The Merchant of Venice. In fact, there may be many of our bankers that will, if Dante is correct, end up in their own circle of hell.where usurers are interned to suffer eternal damnation, so there may be some justice after all.
Sunday, November 16
GM Crops. Why??
A multi generational study of mice conducted in Austria appears to have reignited the debate as to whether GM crops cause long term changes in fertility and the health of offspring. The report (which can be read in full Here) was commissioned to discover whether there were any statistically significant changes over several generations of mice when the control group were fed non GM crops and the test group had a diet that included 33% GM modified maize. From the report it appears that this was much less a "Force Feed" regime, it was much more a "we'll let the mice live a normal life" if life can be normal in a lab.
The important part is that there were differences in litter size and offspring size, with smaller litters and lower birth weights.
Now the important question. Why do we need GM crops? I've heard people say that if we don't have them we will not be able to feed the number of people on the planet. Perhaps having LESS people on the planet wouldn't be a bad idea. The other point I've heard made is that we would "return" to much more labour intensive methods of weed control. So what if we do? Even in my area, rural North Norfolk, I've seen crops for the last 20 years grown without any GM manipulation increase yields thanks to better husbandry.
The driving force for GM is money, certain companies see it as a way that they can make large amounts of money, and when there was, at some point an idea of introducing a "Sterility Gene", producing a crop that cannot be used as seed is totally unethical. We have farmers everywhere having, for countless generations, using their harvest as their seed for the following year. These companies, if they have their way, would stop that dead in it's tracks -- literally. After the harvest, you want to grow something, you BUY new seed. Who provides that? They do!! And as a result they make more money. What happens if you don't buy seed, whether GM or not, you cannot grow anything.
I only have one question, where are the ethics in this?
The important part is that there were differences in litter size and offspring size, with smaller litters and lower birth weights.
Now the important question. Why do we need GM crops? I've heard people say that if we don't have them we will not be able to feed the number of people on the planet. Perhaps having LESS people on the planet wouldn't be a bad idea. The other point I've heard made is that we would "return" to much more labour intensive methods of weed control. So what if we do? Even in my area, rural North Norfolk, I've seen crops for the last 20 years grown without any GM manipulation increase yields thanks to better husbandry.
The driving force for GM is money, certain companies see it as a way that they can make large amounts of money, and when there was, at some point an idea of introducing a "Sterility Gene", producing a crop that cannot be used as seed is totally unethical. We have farmers everywhere having, for countless generations, using their harvest as their seed for the following year. These companies, if they have their way, would stop that dead in it's tracks -- literally. After the harvest, you want to grow something, you BUY new seed. Who provides that? They do!! And as a result they make more money. What happens if you don't buy seed, whether GM or not, you cannot grow anything.
I only have one question, where are the ethics in this?
Friday, November 14
Mugabe, Economics and Whitehall
Just what is happening in the world today? We have a Prime Minister who seems to be oblivious to the fact the problems the country faces were actively encouraged by his government (not that I believe any of the others would have done anything differently). Then in the Guardian we have a "respected" economist, if that isn't a contradiction in terms, telling us here that the only way to prevent deflation is for the Bank of England to give the Government an overdraft.
There are a couple of very worrying comments in the piece, none less than his comment that implies that the British Government may default on it's commitments. to paraphrase the sentence, he says that future taxpayers MAY have to repay the Bondholders, but "It may never happen". So is this an implicit acceptance that the Bondholders may not get paid? It would appear to me that it is. So first the banks screw us, then they screw the country
Brilliant, in the last 20 years, we've changed our Inflation measure out of all recognition, ignoring the Council Tax, the Mortgage Costs and the Utility Costs, Water, Electricity and Gas which between them for a dominant proportion of the spending within a household. The result of that was "low" inflation, until it couldn't be disguised any longer because of huge commodity price increases. I remember, as a lad, the Daily Express having a cartoonist called Cummings, who, in the 1960's featured a "Mr Rising Price", accusing the governments of the time of hiding the true level of inflation. Perhaps the wholesale printing of money will allow the ghost of "Mr Rising Price" to rise (sic) agian, only this time as a super hero, because that's where we are headed, hyperinflation.
If you have anything that has intrinsic value, look after it and don't trust the paper that money is printed on
There are a couple of very worrying comments in the piece, none less than his comment that implies that the British Government may default on it's commitments. to paraphrase the sentence, he says that future taxpayers MAY have to repay the Bondholders, but "It may never happen". So is this an implicit acceptance that the Bondholders may not get paid? It would appear to me that it is. So first the banks screw us, then they screw the country
Brilliant, in the last 20 years, we've changed our Inflation measure out of all recognition, ignoring the Council Tax, the Mortgage Costs and the Utility Costs, Water, Electricity and Gas which between them for a dominant proportion of the spending within a household. The result of that was "low" inflation, until it couldn't be disguised any longer because of huge commodity price increases. I remember, as a lad, the Daily Express having a cartoonist called Cummings, who, in the 1960's featured a "Mr Rising Price", accusing the governments of the time of hiding the true level of inflation. Perhaps the wholesale printing of money will allow the ghost of "Mr Rising Price" to rise (sic) agian, only this time as a super hero, because that's where we are headed, hyperinflation.
If you have anything that has intrinsic value, look after it and don't trust the paper that money is printed on
Friday, October 10
That Was The Week That Was
So, it's Friday evening, about 15 minutes before the Dow truely settles. In the last 90 minutes it's been on a strong upward swing and, just possibly, it may end the day positive. In a week that has seen over one fifth of the value of the FTSE 100 wiped out and people declaring death, doom and disater everywhere, I'm just pleased that it's got as far as it has without riots. Now we are seeing commodities coming well off the stupidly high prices they were commanding, The only problem looks as though it. currently at least resides with th esuper rich who run or have invested in Hedge Funds. Many of these used borrowed money to buy on the basis that the price increase, effectively asset inflation, would be greater than the cost of borrowing the money.
Now they are caught in a two way pinch, firstly they have to keep borrowing the money if they haven't sold on, most of the money was borrowed in the short term market, the one that is currently frozen, secondly, the commodities they have bought, either physically or on the futures market may be worth less now that they were when they were purchased.
I find it very strange that these so called experts can have got so much a our money wrong
Now they are caught in a two way pinch, firstly they have to keep borrowing the money if they haven't sold on, most of the money was borrowed in the short term market, the one that is currently frozen, secondly, the commodities they have bought, either physically or on the futures market may be worth less now that they were when they were purchased.
I find it very strange that these so called experts can have got so much a our money wrong
Monday, October 6
Changing times
An interesting night in the life of the credit crunch, 2 things leap out and hit me.
First for Merkel to effectively say that no one will lose money in German banks is a big statement. What about the "Hot Money" that flows around, the Euro will go higher today, if it already hasn't and this will increase the pain in the entire Eurozone, where Spain, Italy and Greece are already having problems, partly due to the high level of the Euro.
Secondly, now that the $700Bn in is the bank, people will be looking and realising that the Brits have already "spent" approx £150Bn which equates to $380Bn. But the problem in the US is bigger than here AND the American economy is also 5 times larger than ours if you look at GDP. On that basis, if the problems in the US were as bad as the problems here, the bailout should have been just under $2,000Bn (yes, $2 Trillion). so there is still not enough to take the toxic crap off the banks and let them rebuild.
Another point about how much the bailout is and how much the US Government will pay for it. My understanding is that the US Treasury originally said that they wanted to pay the "Life of Holding" value of the bonds, meaning that although they may have been priced and sold at $100 in the Market today they are probably worth just $5, but the Treasury would buy them, adding all the Bond payments that would be made before the bond was redeemed, so the Banks would get MORE for the highly toxic crap (CDO's etc) than they would for better quality bonds, and the money the banks would get would certainly exceed Book Value. My problem is, the more they pay for these bonds, the smaller the number of bonds they can buy and $700Bn is NOT going to cover it. If I have that wrong, will someone correct me please?
It will be interesting (now there's an understatement) to see what emerges after this, I think the Financial system may be totally different, I don't know how, just that it may.
First for Merkel to effectively say that no one will lose money in German banks is a big statement. What about the "Hot Money" that flows around, the Euro will go higher today, if it already hasn't and this will increase the pain in the entire Eurozone, where Spain, Italy and Greece are already having problems, partly due to the high level of the Euro.
Secondly, now that the $700Bn in is the bank, people will be looking and realising that the Brits have already "spent" approx £150Bn which equates to $380Bn. But the problem in the US is bigger than here AND the American economy is also 5 times larger than ours if you look at GDP. On that basis, if the problems in the US were as bad as the problems here, the bailout should have been just under $2,000Bn (yes, $2 Trillion). so there is still not enough to take the toxic crap off the banks and let them rebuild.
Another point about how much the bailout is and how much the US Government will pay for it. My understanding is that the US Treasury originally said that they wanted to pay the "Life of Holding" value of the bonds, meaning that although they may have been priced and sold at $100 in the Market today they are probably worth just $5, but the Treasury would buy them, adding all the Bond payments that would be made before the bond was redeemed, so the Banks would get MORE for the highly toxic crap (CDO's etc) than they would for better quality bonds, and the money the banks would get would certainly exceed Book Value. My problem is, the more they pay for these bonds, the smaller the number of bonds they can buy and $700Bn is NOT going to cover it. If I have that wrong, will someone correct me please?
It will be interesting (now there's an understatement) to see what emerges after this, I think the Financial system may be totally different, I don't know how, just that it may.
Sunday, October 5
Credit Crutch
In the time sine I last posted anything, the "Credit Crunch" has gone from bad through worse to somewhere near disastrous. Banks in the UK and the US have been rescued, Lehman has failed, Morgan Stanley's motto went from "The Thundering Herd" to "The Blundering Nerd" before, themselves, running to be protected by a bigger bank.
Here have a problem, does bigger mean better? And what about Fractional Reserve Banking? Would we be in this mess if we still had local banks and a banking system that held full reserves? I suppose that is in effect the million dollar question. Perhaps we are living in a time that just HAD to happen, because all we have done since 1996 bis postponed the inevitable. I have a feeling that the unproven thesis in economics called the Kondratiev Wave may just have been proved both true. It may also be that the last 10-12 years have been the gold rush they have for the banks for the simple reason that we now have politicians that are beholden to, or perhaps just in awe of big business and rich people.
To understand what the Kondratiev Wave or other long timescale economic cycles are, have a look at this. There are some good links there that will help you understnd what people believe may be happening now. However if one takes a Kondratiev cycle to nominally be 53 years, and recognizing that a wave commenced after the senond world war, say 1946, this means the last cycle should have finished in 1999. It's interesting to note that 1999 was the beginning of the "Dot Com" bust, but while this did have a major effect on the Worlds Stock Markets, but little effect on the man in the street. Perhaps the Intenet did change the paradigm, or at least perhaps distorted it, extending it by seven years to 2007.
It was there that the stupidity of trying to sell houses to people that cannot afford them was finally realised. Since then a new vocabulary has appeared "Sub Prime", "Tier A Capital" and "NINJA" are good examples.
Where do we go from here? I believe the saying "God only knows" may be the closest to reality, but I worry that we are nowhere near that bottom. Stock markets are leading indicators, usually 12 to 18 months, so it would seem we can look forward to a pretty tough 2009, even with where we are now, although some commentators have called the bottom of the bear market I don't believe we are there yet, but only time will tell
Here have a problem, does bigger mean better? And what about Fractional Reserve Banking? Would we be in this mess if we still had local banks and a banking system that held full reserves? I suppose that is in effect the million dollar question. Perhaps we are living in a time that just HAD to happen, because all we have done since 1996 bis postponed the inevitable. I have a feeling that the unproven thesis in economics called the Kondratiev Wave may just have been proved both true. It may also be that the last 10-12 years have been the gold rush they have for the banks for the simple reason that we now have politicians that are beholden to, or perhaps just in awe of big business and rich people.
To understand what the Kondratiev Wave or other long timescale economic cycles are, have a look at this. There are some good links there that will help you understnd what people believe may be happening now. However if one takes a Kondratiev cycle to nominally be 53 years, and recognizing that a wave commenced after the senond world war, say 1946, this means the last cycle should have finished in 1999. It's interesting to note that 1999 was the beginning of the "Dot Com" bust, but while this did have a major effect on the Worlds Stock Markets, but little effect on the man in the street. Perhaps the Intenet did change the paradigm, or at least perhaps distorted it, extending it by seven years to 2007.
It was there that the stupidity of trying to sell houses to people that cannot afford them was finally realised. Since then a new vocabulary has appeared "Sub Prime", "Tier A Capital" and "NINJA" are good examples.
Where do we go from here? I believe the saying "God only knows" may be the closest to reality, but I worry that we are nowhere near that bottom. Stock markets are leading indicators, usually 12 to 18 months, so it would seem we can look forward to a pretty tough 2009, even with where we are now, although some commentators have called the bottom of the bear market I don't believe we are there yet, but only time will tell
Long time no blog
Almost three months in fact. Too much going on, not enough time to talk about it!!
I hope to be rather more regular in my posting from now on.
I hope to be rather more regular in my posting from now on.
Monday, July 7
AmazonaZoo
Any excuse to show what is new (and good) in the area. Took the wife, step daughter and Grand daughter to the new Amazonazoo at Cromer over the weekend. My comments on the place are pretty positive, Friendly staff, animals in what look like a pretty good environment. A variety of mammals, reptiles and fish are shown to very good advantage. Quite a compact site, but nicely laid out. Highlights are the Pirana, smaller than I expected, but would not want to swim with them. Also some nice specimens of Cougars and Jaguars.
A nice play area for children that are bored with the animals rounds the place off. We spent a very comfortable 3 hours there, could have stayed longer, but needs must....
If you are going to Cromer and have some spare time, go to Amazona Zoo, you will not regret it
A nice play area for children that are bored with the animals rounds the place off. We spent a very comfortable 3 hours there, could have stayed longer, but needs must....
If you are going to Cromer and have some spare time, go to Amazona Zoo, you will not regret it
Monday, June 23
Linux, Windows and geeks
So, here I sit, with the new version of Suse Linux (V 11) running as the primary operating system of my laptop.
Big decision this, before today, I had, at various times tried to use Linux (usually Suse or Red Hat) and usually ended up using a dual boot pc, which takes away the advantages of a linux system, as, for work I need to use Lotus Notes, an dthe business only has the Windows Client. So when Suse 11 came out, I decided that it made sense to use Virtual Box to virtualise Windoes inside Suse. Guess what? It works !! I'm amazed that a bunch of people who, in part do this for fun manage to get an Operating system that is so easy to use.
I'll report back as I go on if I continue to be as happy....
Big decision this, before today, I had, at various times tried to use Linux (usually Suse or Red Hat) and usually ended up using a dual boot pc, which takes away the advantages of a linux system, as, for work I need to use Lotus Notes, an dthe business only has the Windows Client. So when Suse 11 came out, I decided that it made sense to use Virtual Box to virtualise Windoes inside Suse. Guess what? It works !! I'm amazed that a bunch of people who, in part do this for fun manage to get an Operating system that is so easy to use.
I'll report back as I go on if I continue to be as happy....
Thursday, June 19
Budget Contingency
As I understand it, there is a "Contingency Reserve" set aside every year for emergencies and other unexpected events that may cost money over and above what is budgeted for. I read somewhere (that I cannot remember), that the contingency reserve for last year was £57,000,000,000. Which is a staggering amount. It is 10% of total expenditure, where does it go?
Does it actually get spent even if there are no emergencies?
Is there anyone out there who can bring some light on how much it is and what happens to it?
Does it actually get spent even if there are no emergencies?
Is there anyone out there who can bring some light on how much it is and what happens to it?
Tuesday, June 17
Broadband getting worse
I, along with most people in North Norfolk, have to depend on BT to do the links between my home and the exchange and then my exchange down to the server that handles my Broadband.
Now, I pay for a business connection, which has a 20:1 contention rather than the standard 50:1, and up until 7 months ago I was getting (every day) a connection of just under 2Mb/s down and 796 Kb/s up.
Then it changed
Now I get 1152 Kb/s down and 256 Kb/s up, so I have lost half of my download speed and two thirds of my upload speed. ( I hear you say "Talk to the ISP")
I did, the ISP (Demon Internet -- Thus Telecom ) have been very helpful, but they say that the line is capped at 1Mb/s AT the Exchange, as there is a disconnect that happens regularly on the line, once or more times per day. Can I find anything that causes it? Can I hell!!
Now this week, performance is abysmal, everything is taking 2 - 3 times longer than it should, no extra load on the line from here, just is much slower. Who else in North Norfolk is suffering ?? Anyone
Now, I pay for a business connection, which has a 20:1 contention rather than the standard 50:1, and up until 7 months ago I was getting (every day) a connection of just under 2Mb/s down and 796 Kb/s up.
Then it changed
Now I get 1152 Kb/s down and 256 Kb/s up, so I have lost half of my download speed and two thirds of my upload speed. ( I hear you say "Talk to the ISP")
I did, the ISP (Demon Internet -- Thus Telecom ) have been very helpful, but they say that the line is capped at 1Mb/s AT the Exchange, as there is a disconnect that happens regularly on the line, once or more times per day. Can I find anything that causes it? Can I hell!!
Now this week, performance is abysmal, everything is taking 2 - 3 times longer than it should, no extra load on the line from here, just is much slower. Who else in North Norfolk is suffering ?? Anyone
Computer Security
So again we have a loss of data from a government source.
So far, we know that this Government has lost approx. 20 million NI Numbers -- then sent out an apology to everyone WITH the persons NI Number on the letter
Then a laptop with names of people thinking of joining the Armed Services went missingm just a paltry 20,000 names on that, but going back FIVE years
Now Hazel Blears loses a laptop with data on it THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN RELEASED.
I work in the IT area, where are the Controls? Where are the Checks? Is this a sign that Whitehall isn't just leaky, it's totally porous. I read a few years ago that the RAF were having nightmares after an upgrade to Windows XP due to it's USB friendly setup.
Why on earth are our armed services using Windows?
I wonder what the Licensing costs are per year
As for the NI number loss, outsourcing always appears to give an immediate improvement to the bottom line, but the Service Level Agreements between the Government and it's suppliers probably mean that a simple query on the Database would cost in excess of £10,000, as it almost certainly would not be covered by the SLA. This means that a database query that would take a Professional about 30 minutes to design and execute ( and would therefore cost about £20) costs about 5,000% more than it otherwise would have.
So much for saving on the bottom line
So far, we know that this Government has lost approx. 20 million NI Numbers -- then sent out an apology to everyone WITH the persons NI Number on the letter
Then a laptop with names of people thinking of joining the Armed Services went missingm just a paltry 20,000 names on that, but going back FIVE years
Now Hazel Blears loses a laptop with data on it THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN RELEASED.
I work in the IT area, where are the Controls? Where are the Checks? Is this a sign that Whitehall isn't just leaky, it's totally porous. I read a few years ago that the RAF were having nightmares after an upgrade to Windows XP due to it's USB friendly setup.
Why on earth are our armed services using Windows?
I wonder what the Licensing costs are per year
As for the NI number loss, outsourcing always appears to give an immediate improvement to the bottom line, but the Service Level Agreements between the Government and it's suppliers probably mean that a simple query on the Database would cost in excess of £10,000, as it almost certainly would not be covered by the SLA. This means that a database query that would take a Professional about 30 minutes to design and execute ( and would therefore cost about £20) costs about 5,000% more than it otherwise would have.
So much for saving on the bottom line
Friday, June 13
David Davis and the "Sun"
Once again, we see that the Press Baron called Murdoch wants us all to become "Knuckle Draggers". Having Mackenszie stand if Labour does not field a candidate is incredible.
We supposedly have a Government, they seem to think that the police should be able to incarcerate me, or anyone else, for 42 days without Evidence . Why would Labour not put up a candidate? Because they are scared that they will be defeated by a huge margin.
David Davis has made a very brave decision, good on him.
We supposedly have a Government, they seem to think that the police should be able to incarcerate me, or anyone else, for 42 days without Evidence . Why would Labour not put up a candidate? Because they are scared that they will be defeated by a huge margin.
David Davis has made a very brave decision, good on him.
Sunday, June 8
Short Selling and Naked Short Selling
Interesting, until the last couple of days I always wondered exactly how short selling operated. I always wondered how the shares were borrowed. In the last few days, I now understand that Institutions Loan them out, to short sellers for a fixed commission, effectively, an interest charge. At this point, the shares do not change hands, just the rights to them to be bought and sold. This, I'm told is 'A Normal practice' and 'a valuable income stream to pension funds and the like'. Am I the only person who finds this amazing? I certainly couldn't sell something I borrowed, without becoming of interest to the police if the owner was sufficiently concerned.
Of even greater concern is naked short selling(NSS). this is where someone doesn't bother to borrow the shares, just sells shares that they don't own. This NSS is illegal, and there are some very detailed blogs in the US that argue that NSS is a huge problem. Where do we sit in the UK? Difficult to know, a cursory check has shown little to suggest that NSS is a problem, but I think a little more looking is required. Robert Peston's Blog on the BBC website has details of the fact the Bradford and Bingley have been shorted, but he believes that shorting helps a market rather than destroys.
I have 2 questions.
1) Does Naked SHort selling exist in the UK
2) how robust is our settlement systems? If the shares are not delivered, how strict is the regulation on reporting and prosecution of the people that fail to provide
Of even greater concern is naked short selling(NSS). this is where someone doesn't bother to borrow the shares, just sells shares that they don't own. This NSS is illegal, and there are some very detailed blogs in the US that argue that NSS is a huge problem. Where do we sit in the UK? Difficult to know, a cursory check has shown little to suggest that NSS is a problem, but I think a little more looking is required. Robert Peston's Blog on the BBC website has details of the fact the Bradford and Bingley have been shorted, but he believes that shorting helps a market rather than destroys.
I have 2 questions.
1) Does Naked SHort selling exist in the UK
2) how robust is our settlement systems? If the shares are not delivered, how strict is the regulation on reporting and prosecution of the people that fail to provide
Saturday, May 24
Oil Price, Speculation and "Peak Oil"
So that was the week where the oil price hit $135 per barrel. As I write this we have articles on the BBC news website saying prices have dropped off from their high, but still up over 40% on the year.
There is no doubt an large element of speculation in the price at the moment, but that does not mean that prices will ever return to the levels we previously have known. There have been people, usually not associated with the oil industry, who have been telling those that listen that we are at or near the maximum production of oil.
How close we are to "Peak Oil" depends on many factors, the largest of which is how close to the truth are the declared reserves of the oil producing producing countries, especially the OPEC producers.
The declared reserves of OPEC countries are the measure by which their production quota is calculated and almost all OPEC countries declared reserves underwent a significant amount of inflation when oil prices were very low <$25 a barrel, as this allowed them to pump more oil in a "begger thy neighbour" mode of operation, when prices were so low, all the gulf states needed the money to finance their budgets, so it was in their interests to inflate their reserves to allow them to pump more. Details of how the OPEC producers inflated their reserves without any apparent discoveries of new oil fields can be found in this excellent book
We will in the future have to find other means of powering our requirements if we want to live in a technological society, hydrogen as the main fuel is a chimera, fusion is as far away now as it was in the 1950's, so what do we use to maintain our lifestyles?? I have no idea, and I am pessimistic about the future of our society, perhaps we'll all go back to the horse and cart, perhaps it would do humanity good to do so
There is no doubt an large element of speculation in the price at the moment, but that does not mean that prices will ever return to the levels we previously have known. There have been people, usually not associated with the oil industry, who have been telling those that listen that we are at or near the maximum production of oil.
How close we are to "Peak Oil" depends on many factors, the largest of which is how close to the truth are the declared reserves of the oil producing producing countries, especially the OPEC producers.
The declared reserves of OPEC countries are the measure by which their production quota is calculated and almost all OPEC countries declared reserves underwent a significant amount of inflation when oil prices were very low <$25 a barrel, as this allowed them to pump more oil in a "begger thy neighbour" mode of operation, when prices were so low, all the gulf states needed the money to finance their budgets, so it was in their interests to inflate their reserves to allow them to pump more. Details of how the OPEC producers inflated their reserves without any apparent discoveries of new oil fields can be found in this excellent book
We will in the future have to find other means of powering our requirements if we want to live in a technological society, hydrogen as the main fuel is a chimera, fusion is as far away now as it was in the 1950's, so what do we use to maintain our lifestyles?? I have no idea, and I am pessimistic about the future of our society, perhaps we'll all go back to the horse and cart, perhaps it would do humanity good to do so
Wednesday, May 21
Global Warming, Fact? Fiction?
I think there is a great deal of confusion about what is "Global Warming" and what is "Climate Change". There is no doubt that we, the human race, are responsible for a portion of the warming that is happening to the planet today, but what percentage?
The honest answer, despite all the hype is that no one knows, and all the models used by scientists are too simplistic to model out into the future. I understand the way that they start their models 50 years in the past and watch for correlation to the present, those that have a high correlation up to the present are then extrapolated into the future, sometimes as far as 100 years into the future. The output, even 20 years into the future is highly suspect. In Reality, we cannot predict the weather one month away, let alone 20 years or 100 years into the future.
Climate Change, as opposed to Global warming has, on the other hand, has always happened. 7,000 years ago, North Africa was so green and wet, that there were crocodiles all across North Africa, now there are still a few relic populations in the Sahara. Are we trying to say that the failure of the North African Monsoon and the effect that it had on the entire North African area was a freak event? Further work has shown that the North African Continent has had multiple periods of wet, warm and arid, hot periods. These have occurred before and during the time that humankind were first colonising the planet therefore we could not have affected things if we were not there.
So, are we having an effect? Almost certainly. Do we know how much of an effect? Even with all the modeling done to date -- somewhere between nothing and not a lot.
If you disagree, feel free to comment
The honest answer, despite all the hype is that no one knows, and all the models used by scientists are too simplistic to model out into the future. I understand the way that they start their models 50 years in the past and watch for correlation to the present, those that have a high correlation up to the present are then extrapolated into the future, sometimes as far as 100 years into the future. The output, even 20 years into the future is highly suspect. In Reality, we cannot predict the weather one month away, let alone 20 years or 100 years into the future.
Climate Change, as opposed to Global warming has, on the other hand, has always happened. 7,000 years ago, North Africa was so green and wet, that there were crocodiles all across North Africa, now there are still a few relic populations in the Sahara. Are we trying to say that the failure of the North African Monsoon and the effect that it had on the entire North African area was a freak event? Further work has shown that the North African Continent has had multiple periods of wet, warm and arid, hot periods. These have occurred before and during the time that humankind were first colonising the planet therefore we could not have affected things if we were not there.
So, are we having an effect? Almost certainly. Do we know how much of an effect? Even with all the modeling done to date -- somewhere between nothing and not a lot.
If you disagree, feel free to comment
Tuesday, May 20
DNA invented after 1974 !!!
Just heard on local news in the East. A police spokesman, describing how the police were reopening a cold case of a headless body found in Norfolk. "DNA wasn't invented when we first investigated this case, it came along some years later"
I suppose if DNA was invented, it was done by Mother Nature, a few billion years ago. As far as DNA evidence is concerned, that's much more recent invention, around 1984 (Orwell would have been pleased). The link, without the offending comment, is here
I suppose if DNA was invented, it was done by Mother Nature, a few billion years ago. As far as DNA evidence is concerned, that's much more recent invention, around 1984 (Orwell would have been pleased). The link, without the offending comment, is here
Monday, May 19
Teddy Bears picnic
Here we have a picture from the Crewe Labour web site at http://www.creweandnantwichlabour.org.uk/home.
Where the caption beneath the photo is " Ed Balls joined Tamsin Dunwoody at Pebble Brook and Wistaston Green Primary School"
Which one is ED?
Hybrid Stem Cells
Listening to the Radio 5 morning phone-in, makes me realise how confused people are over the debate surrounding the possibility of human/non human hybrids. We are constantly told that there are so many potential benefits, however everything I've seen in print seems to point to a single fact.
We just don't know if there will be any benefits.
Is this science for science's sake? Where do we progress from here?
Comments from people on the 5 Live show included some quite vicious comments to a man who had 4 daughters who made a very cogent comment that there are too many people on the planet. Irrespective of how many children he has, he was correct, there are too many of us. I fully appreciate that there are many people that have relatives with diseases like Alzheimers, Parkinsons and other genetically inherited problems, but there seems to be a culture of "I need to live forever". I for one want to have a degree of dignity in my life, if I become too ill to have that dignity, I would prefer to leave this mortal coil.
I have a scientific background and have very few problems with the search to answers for problems, but when we move to mixing different types of DNA, that, as far as we are aware, is impossible in nature, we should beware. Just because the law says that these cells should be destroyed at 20 days doesn't mean that they always will be, there are rogue scientists just as there are rogue traders. And if a hybrid is viable, and is capable of reproducing, where do we go from there??
We just don't know if there will be any benefits.
Is this science for science's sake? Where do we progress from here?
Comments from people on the 5 Live show included some quite vicious comments to a man who had 4 daughters who made a very cogent comment that there are too many people on the planet. Irrespective of how many children he has, he was correct, there are too many of us. I fully appreciate that there are many people that have relatives with diseases like Alzheimers, Parkinsons and other genetically inherited problems, but there seems to be a culture of "I need to live forever". I for one want to have a degree of dignity in my life, if I become too ill to have that dignity, I would prefer to leave this mortal coil.
I have a scientific background and have very few problems with the search to answers for problems, but when we move to mixing different types of DNA, that, as far as we are aware, is impossible in nature, we should beware. Just because the law says that these cells should be destroyed at 20 days doesn't mean that they always will be, there are rogue scientists just as there are rogue traders. And if a hybrid is viable, and is capable of reproducing, where do we go from there??
"Image" and how people perceive it
Gordon Brown's problem, at least in the mind of all the labour spin doctors, is his "Image". Tony Blair's problem, later in his premiership, was his "Image". John Major , Maggie Thatcher, James Callaghan all suffered at some point from their "Image".
The Bremner, Bird and Fortune Sketch last night with Rory Bremner as John Major really hit the mark. A Chancellor, taking over from the Prime Minister, someone of limited charisma taking over from someone suffering from charisma overload.
We have become as obsessed by personality in Politics as we are with celebrity. So where does the obsession come from? Primarily from the media, many of them follow public opinion, but exaggerate the condition dramatically. What I don't know is how much these opinions, espoused in papers like the Sun and Mirror, form the opinion of the readers, or whether the readers are already of the Political beliefs held by the papers. The Mirror has, in my time at least, always been staunchly socialist, the Sun has flip flopped to try to get the most influence for Murdoch. But does the headline "It was the Sun that won it" ring true? I think that the people of this country had, in all the big turning points in recent history, decided "enough is enough" and that we needed to give the other bunch a try.
Callaghan was brought down by "The Winter of Discontent", Major by "Black Wednesday", will it just be his personality that brings down Brown? Or will it be that once again, the British People will want a change, almost for changes sake?
The Bremner, Bird and Fortune Sketch last night with Rory Bremner as John Major really hit the mark. A Chancellor, taking over from the Prime Minister, someone of limited charisma taking over from someone suffering from charisma overload.
We have become as obsessed by personality in Politics as we are with celebrity. So where does the obsession come from? Primarily from the media, many of them follow public opinion, but exaggerate the condition dramatically. What I don't know is how much these opinions, espoused in papers like the Sun and Mirror, form the opinion of the readers, or whether the readers are already of the Political beliefs held by the papers. The Mirror has, in my time at least, always been staunchly socialist, the Sun has flip flopped to try to get the most influence for Murdoch. But does the headline "It was the Sun that won it" ring true? I think that the people of this country had, in all the big turning points in recent history, decided "enough is enough" and that we needed to give the other bunch a try.
Callaghan was brought down by "The Winter of Discontent", Major by "Black Wednesday", will it just be his personality that brings down Brown? Or will it be that once again, the British People will want a change, almost for changes sake?
Sunday, May 18
Politics, Gordon Brown and the Lack of Democracy
Am I the only person around who becomes more annoyed by the talk of replacing our "esteemed" Prime Minister as each day passes? I didn't vote for him, if Nu labour do ditch him without an election, that will be the second time in one parliament that leaders will have been changed without the people having a chance to say who they want as PM.
We need a clear rule for any party in Government -- change your leader -- go to the country and get a mandate.
Brown almost did that, if he had, and he would probably have won -- how long ago does last summer feel? We would have only ourselves to blame. But he didn't, and so was born "Bottler" Brown, scared, during his "honeymoon period", of the people, so how will he feel when he is the man responsible for the destruction of "New" labour? How will he feel when Labour, new or old is removed from power? How long will they go for?
Some thoughts please.....
We need a clear rule for any party in Government -- change your leader -- go to the country and get a mandate.
Brown almost did that, if he had, and he would probably have won -- how long ago does last summer feel? We would have only ourselves to blame. But he didn't, and so was born "Bottler" Brown, scared, during his "honeymoon period", of the people, so how will he feel when he is the man responsible for the destruction of "New" labour? How will he feel when Labour, new or old is removed from power? How long will they go for?
Some thoughts please.....
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