Oil Price, Speculation and "Peak Oil"

So that was the week where the oil price hit $135 per barrel. As I write this we have articles on the BBC news website saying prices have dropped off from their high, but still up over 40% on the year.

There is no doubt an large element of speculation in the price at the moment, but that does not mean that prices will ever return to the levels we previously have known. There have been people, usually not associated with the oil industry, who have been telling those that listen that we are at or near the maximum production of oil.

How close we are to "Peak Oil" depends on many factors, the largest of which is how close to the truth are the declared reserves of the oil producing producing countries, especially the OPEC producers.

The declared reserves of OPEC countries are the measure by which their production quota is calculated and almost all OPEC countries declared reserves underwent a significant amount of inflation when oil prices were very low <$25 a barrel, as this allowed them to pump more oil in a "begger thy neighbour" mode of operation, when prices were so low, all the gulf states needed the money to finance their budgets, so it was in their interests to inflate their reserves to allow them to pump more. Details of how the OPEC producers inflated their reserves without any apparent discoveries of new oil fields can be found in this excellent book

We will in the future have to find other means of powering our requirements if we want to live in a technological society, hydrogen as the main fuel is a chimera, fusion is as far away now as it was in the 1950's, so what do we use to maintain our lifestyles?? I have no idea, and I am pessimistic about the future of our society, perhaps we'll all go back to the horse and cart, perhaps it would do humanity good to do so

Global Warming, Fact? Fiction?

I think there is a great deal of confusion about what is "Global Warming" and what is "Climate Change". There is no doubt that we, the human race, are responsible for a portion of the warming that is happening to the planet today, but what percentage?

The honest answer, despite all the hype is that no one knows, and all the models used by scientists are too simplistic to model out into the future. I understand the way that they start their models 50 years in the past and watch for correlation to the present, those that have a high correlation up to the present are then extrapolated into the future, sometimes as far as 100 years into the future. The output, even 20 years into the future is highly suspect. In Reality, we cannot predict the weather one month away, let alone 20 years or 100 years into the future.

Climate Change, as opposed to Global warming has, on the other hand, has always happened. 7,000 years ago, North Africa was so green and wet, that there were crocodiles all across North Africa, now there are still a few relic populations in the Sahara. Are we trying to say that the failure of the North African Monsoon and the effect that it had on the entire North African area was a freak event? Further work has shown that the North African Continent has had multiple periods of wet, warm and arid, hot periods. These have occurred before and during the time that humankind were first colonising the planet therefore we could not have affected things if we were not there.

So, are we having an effect? Almost certainly. Do we know how much of an effect? Even with all the modeling done to date -- somewhere between nothing and not a lot.

If you disagree, feel free to comment

DNA invented after 1974 !!!

Just heard on local news in the East. A police spokesman, describing how the police were reopening a cold case of a headless body found in Norfolk. "DNA wasn't invented when we first investigated this case, it came along some years later"

I suppose if DNA was invented, it was done by Mother Nature, a few billion years ago. As far as DNA evidence is concerned, that's much more recent invention, around 1984 (Orwell would have been pleased). The link, without the offending comment, is here

Teddy Bears picnic

Here we have a picture from the Crewe Labour web site at http://www.creweandnantwichlabour.org.uk/home.

Where the caption beneath the photo is " Ed Balls joined Tamsin Dunwoody at Pebble Brook and Wistaston Green Primary School"

Which one is ED?

Hybrid Stem Cells

Listening to the Radio 5 morning phone-in, makes me realise how confused people are over the debate surrounding the possibility of human/non human hybrids. We are constantly told that there are so many potential benefits, however everything I've seen in print seems to point to a single fact.

We just don't know if there will be any benefits.

Is this science for science's sake? Where do we progress from here?

Comments from people on the 5 Live show included some quite vicious comments to a man who had 4 daughters who made a very cogent comment that there are too many people on the planet. Irrespective of how many children he has, he was correct, there are too many of us. I fully appreciate that there are many people that have relatives with diseases like Alzheimers, Parkinsons and other genetically inherited problems, but there seems to be a culture of "I need to live forever". I for one want to have a degree of dignity in my life, if I become too ill to have that dignity, I would prefer to leave this mortal coil.

I have a scientific background and have very few problems with the search to answers for problems, but when we move to mixing different types of DNA, that, as far as we are aware, is impossible in nature, we should beware. Just because the law says that these cells should be destroyed at 20 days doesn't mean that they always will be, there are rogue scientists just as there are rogue traders. And if a hybrid is viable, and is capable of reproducing, where do we go from there??

"Image" and how people perceive it

Gordon Brown's problem, at least in the mind of all the labour spin doctors, is his "Image". Tony Blair's problem, later in his premiership, was his "Image". John Major , Maggie Thatcher, James Callaghan all suffered at some point from their "Image".

The Bremner, Bird and Fortune Sketch last night with Rory Bremner as John Major really hit the mark. A Chancellor, taking over from the Prime Minister, someone of limited charisma taking over from someone suffering from charisma overload.

We have become as obsessed by personality in Politics as we are with celebrity. So where does the obsession come from? Primarily from the media, many of them follow public opinion, but exaggerate the condition dramatically. What I don't know is how much these opinions, espoused in papers like the Sun and Mirror, form the opinion of the readers, or whether the readers are already of the Political beliefs held by the papers. The Mirror has, in my time at least, always been staunchly socialist, the Sun has flip flopped to try to get the most influence for Murdoch. But does the headline "It was the Sun that won it" ring true? I think that the people of this country had, in all the big turning points in recent history, decided "enough is enough" and that we needed to give the other bunch a try.

Callaghan was brought down by "The Winter of Discontent", Major by "Black Wednesday", will it just be his personality that brings down Brown? Or will it be that once again, the British People will want a change, almost for changes sake?

Politics, Gordon Brown and the Lack of Democracy

Am I the only person around who becomes more annoyed by the talk of replacing our "esteemed" Prime Minister as each day passes? I didn't vote for him, if Nu labour do ditch him without an election, that will be the second time in one parliament that leaders will have been changed without the people having a chance to say who they want as PM.

We need a clear rule for any party in Government -- change your leader -- go to the country and get a mandate.

Brown almost did that, if he had, and he would probably have won -- how long ago does last summer feel? We would have only ourselves to blame. But he didn't, and so was born "Bottler" Brown, scared, during his "honeymoon period", of the people, so how will he feel when he is the man responsible for the destruction of "New" labour? How will he feel when Labour, new or old is removed from power? How long will they go for?

Some thoughts please.....